Role
Chapman closes. He saved 35 games in 37 chances in 2026 with a 1.92 ERA and 71 strikeouts in 51 2/3 innings, and made his fifth AL All-Star team. He'll have the ninth inning again in 2027. His option vested once he passed his end-of-season physical, which locks in at least $13 million for his age-39 season (MLB Trade Rumors).
Outlook
The results were great, and some of the inputs slipped. His four-seamer averaged 96.9 mph, down from 98.4 in 2025, and his walk rate climbed from 6.6% to 10.8% (Baseball Savant). His expected ERA was 2.64, still elite, though not 1.92. Lat tightness meant he pitched in just one of the last 12 regular-season games (per MLB Trade Rumors), and then he struck out the side in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series. He has 402 career saves.
Our take: the slider and splitter are still nearly unhittable, and that matters more than a missing mile per hour. We expect 30-plus saves. We also expect the ERA to look more like 2.75 than 1.92, and the club should have Garrett Whitlock ready for the nights Chapman needs off.