Role
Garrett Crochet was supposed to front the rotation in the first year of his six-year, $170 million extension. He made six starts, went on the injured list in late April with left shoulder inflammation, and didn't throw another pitch for Boston until Game 2 of the Wild Card Series. He came out of the bullpen that night and was charged with four runs without getting an out. The 2027 job is the one he had in April: take the ball every fifth day and be the best pitcher on the staff.
Outlook
In 2025 he went 18-5 with a 2.59 ERA, led the AL in innings (205.1) and strikeouts (255), and finished second to Tarik Skubal in the Cy Young voting (per the AP). This year he had a 6.30 ERA over 30 innings before the shoulder flared, and one of those six starts was a 10-run, five-out disaster in Minnesota. The AP also reported a low-grade lat strain in late May. His four-seamer averaged 95.8 mph this year after 96.4 in 2025, per MLB's pitch data, so the velocity held.
Our take: the strikeouts never left (37 in 30 innings), and a full winter off is the best thing that could happen to that shoulder. It's a shoulder, so we won't call the risk zero. If he makes 28 starts, he's in the Cy Young race again.